ATLAS evaluated field
Everything ATLAS priced.
Including everything it turned down.
The official record shows the calls that cleared the bar. That is the selected sample, and on its own it cannot tell you whether the bar is any good. This is the rest of the distribution — every candidate priced, with the reason each one was refused.
Today
priced 10:34 UTC
21 candidates priced across 7 games.
The field covers every market inside a 72-hour window, so this counts fixtures that have not been played yet, across every sport being priced.
These are each market’s status at the last snapshot before it started, not what was published — a call recommended in the morning usually reads WATCH by game time. The record is what was actually called.
Why candidates could not be priced
7spread venue unverified
7ncaaf ml unproven vs market
7team thinly rated
3no polymarket market
21 priced candidates, with model and market probability on every row.
The counts above are open to everyone — how wide the search was, and why each candidate was refused. The prices themselves are the Desk tier.
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21 candidates priced today, rejects included — the unbiased sample, not just what cleared the bar.
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Previous days
Mon, Oct 1951 candidates7 games · 4 NCAAF · 1 MLB · 1 NFL · 1 WNBA0 published
Why candidates were declined
1event starts within one hour
Why candidates could not be priced
22nfl total unproven vs market
9wnba total unproven vs market
6spread venue unverified
4ncaaf ml unproven vs market
4team thinly rated
2no polymarket market
1projection disagreement too large
1projection uninformative vs market
1nfl ml unproven vs market
Sun, Oct 18217 candidates17 games · 12 NFL · 3 NCAAF · 1 WNBA · 1 MLB0 published
Why candidates were declined
1event starts within one hour
Why candidates could not be priced
181nfl total unproven vs market
12nfl ml unproven vs market
9wnba total unproven vs market
5spread venue unverified
3ncaaf ml unproven vs market
3team thinly rated
3no polymarket market
Sat, Oct 17450 candidates66 games · 52 NCAAF · 11 NFL · 2 WNBA · 1 MLB0 published
Why candidates were declined
22marginal edge — watching
2ev 3.7% below threshold
1ev 1.8% below threshold
1ev 1.2% below threshold
1ev 0.6% below threshold
1ev -14% below threshold
1ev 3.3% below threshold
1ev 3.2% below threshold
1ev -2.1% below threshold
1ev 3.5% below threshold
1ev 3% below threshold
1ev -0.9% below threshold
Why candidates could not be priced
156nfl total unproven vs market
148spread venue unverified
24ncaaf ml unproven vs market
20wnba total unproven vs market
17team thinly rated
12nfl ml unproven vs market
11wnba total rung unquoted
3no polymarket market
2ml price out of band
1projection disagreement too large
1projection uninformative vs market
Fri, Oct 16424 candidates67 games · 55 NCAAF · 10 NFL · 1 MLB · 1 WNBA0 published
Why candidates were declined
43marginal edge — watching
2ev 3.7% below threshold
1event starts within one hour
1ev 1.8% below threshold
1ev -3.4% below threshold
1ev -3.8% below threshold
1ev 2.3% below threshold
1ev 2.2% below threshold
1ev -0.3% below threshold
1ev -1.3% below threshold
1ev 2.7% below threshold
1ev -0.9% below threshold
1ev -0.4% below threshold
1ev -0.1% below threshold
1ev -2.9% below threshold
1ev -0.8% below threshold
1ev -16.3% below threshold
1ev 3.5% below threshold
1ev -3.3% below threshold
Why candidates could not be priced
143spread venue unverified
134nfl total unproven vs market
22ncaaf ml unproven vs market
10nfl ml unproven vs market
9wnba total unproven vs market
4no polymarket market
2ml price out of band
2team thinly rated
Thu, Oct 15288 candidates62 games · 58 NCAAF · 2 MLB · 1 NFL · 1 WNBA0 published
Why candidates were declined
21marginal edge — watching
4event starts within one hour
1ev -0.1% below threshold
1ev -2% below threshold
1ev -2.6% below threshold
1ev -0.9% below threshold
Why candidates could not be priced
122spread venue unverified
44no polymarket market
33ncaaf ml unproven vs market
11team thinly rated
10nfl total unproven vs market
9wnba total unproven vs market
7projection disagreement too large
7projection uninformative vs market
2ml price out of band
1nfl ml unproven vs market
Wed, Oct 1464 candidates12 games · 8 NCAAF · 2 MLB · 1 NFL · 1 WNBA0 published
Why candidates were declined
2event starts within one hour
1edge above published band
1expected value or confidence too low
Why candidates could not be priced
11spread venue unverified
10nfl total unproven vs market
9wnba total unproven vs market
8ncaaf ml unproven vs market
8team thinly rated
7projection disagreement too large
7projection uninformative vs market
3no polymarket market
1nfl ml unproven vs market
Tue, Oct 1349 candidates10 games · 7 NCAAF · 2 MLB · 1 WNBA1 published
Why candidates were declined
2event starts within one hour
1edge above published band
1expected value or confidence too low
Why candidates could not be priced
9spread venue unverified
9wnba total unproven vs market
7projection disagreement too large
7ncaaf ml unproven vs market
7team thinly rated
6no polymarket market
5projection uninformative vs market
Mon, Oct 1241 candidates8 games · 4 NCAAF · 2 MLB · 1 NFL · 1 WNBA0 published
Why candidates were declined
4event starts within one hour
Why candidates could not be priced
10nfl total unproven vs market
9wnba total unproven vs market
5spread venue unverified
4ncaaf ml unproven vs market
4team thinly rated
2projection disagreement too large
2projection uninformative vs market
2no polymarket market
1nfl ml unproven vs market
Sun, Oct 11230 candidates18 games · 13 NFL · 2 MLB · 2 NCAAF · 1 WNBA1 published
Why candidates were declined
1event starts within one hour
1expected value or confidence too low
Why candidates could not be priced
190nfl total unproven vs market
13nfl ml unproven vs market
9wnba total unproven vs market
5spread venue unverified
4no polymarket market
3projection disagreement too large
3projection uninformative vs market
2ncaaf ml unproven vs market
2team thinly rated
Sat, Oct 10497 candidates63 games · 46 NCAAF · 12 NFL · 3 WNBA · 2 MLB0 published
Why candidates were declined
14marginal edge — watching
2event starts within one hour
2ev 1.4% below threshold
1edge above published band
1ev 0.2% below threshold
1ev -1.3% below threshold
1ev -1.8% below threshold
1ev -3% below threshold
1ev -2.5% below threshold
1ev 0.3% below threshold
1ev 0.1% below threshold
1ev -3.8% below threshold
Why candidates could not be priced
176nfl total unproven vs market
123spread venue unverified
61ncaaf ml unproven vs market
38team thinly rated
27wnba total unproven vs market
12nfl ml unproven vs market
4ml price out of band
3projection disagreement too large
3projection uninformative vs market
2no polymarket market
1wnba total rung unquoted
Fri, Oct 9517 candidates65 games · 51 NCAAF · 11 NFL · 2 WNBA · 1 MLB0 published
Why candidates were declined
51marginal edge — watching
2ev -1.3% below threshold
1edge above published band
1expected value or confidence too low
1ev 1.2% below threshold
1ev 0.7% below threshold
1ev 0.1% below threshold
1ev -1.8% below threshold
1ev -2.4% below threshold
1ev -2.9% below threshold
1ev 3% below threshold
1ev -2% below threshold
1ev 2.1% below threshold
1ev 1.3% below threshold
1ev 0.5% below threshold
1ev 0.4% below threshold
1ev -1% below threshold
1ev -1.5% below threshold
1ev 2.2% below threshold
Why candidates could not be priced
155nfl total unproven vs market
143spread venue unverified
68ncaaf ml unproven vs market
18wnba total unproven vs market
17team thinly rated
11nfl ml unproven vs market
4ml price out of band
2no polymarket market
1projection disagreement too large
1projection uninformative vs market
Thu, Oct 8348 candidates60 games · 55 NCAAF · 4 WNBA · 1 MLB1 published
Why candidates were declined
19marginal edge — watching
2event starts within one hour
1ev 3.1% below threshold
1ev 2.1% below threshold
1ev 1.2% below threshold
1ev -3.9% below threshold
1ev 4% below threshold
1ev 2% below threshold
1ev -1% below threshold
Why candidates could not be priced
109spread venue unverified
72ncaaf ml unproven vs market
55team thinly rated
45wnba total unproven vs market
41no polymarket market
4ml price out of band
2wnba total rung unquoted
1projection disagreement too large
1projection uninformative vs market
Wed, Oct 771 candidates17 games · 11 NCAAF · 4 MLB · 2 WNBA1 published
Why candidates were declined
2event starts within one hour
2expected value or confidence too low
1edge above published band
Why candidates could not be priced
18wnba total unproven vs market
14spread venue unverified
11ncaaf ml unproven vs market
11team thinly rated
5no polymarket market
4projection disagreement too large
4projection uninformative vs market
3away starter insufficient sample
Tue, Oct 660 candidates13 games · 7 NCAAF · 4 MLB · 2 WNBA2 published
Why candidates were declined
2expected value or confidence too low
2event starts within one hour
1edge above published band
Why candidates could not be priced
18wnba total unproven vs market
10spread venue unverified
7ncaaf ml unproven vs market
7team thinly rated
4projection disagreement too large
4projection uninformative vs market
4no polymarket market
3away starter insufficient sample
Mon, Oct 558 candidates10 games · 4 MLB · 3 NCAAF · 2 WNBA · 1 NFL0 published
Why candidates were declined
3edge above published band
3expected value or confidence too low
Why candidates could not be priced
18wnba total unproven vs market
14nfl total unproven vs market
6projection disagreement too large
6projection uninformative vs market
4no polymarket market
4spread venue unverified
3ncaaf ml unproven vs market
3team thinly rated
1nfl ml unproven vs market
Sun, Oct 4312 candidates22 games · 13 NFL · 4 MLB · 4 WNBA · 1 NCAAF0 published
Why candidates were declined
2event starts within one hour
1edge above published band
1expected value or confidence too low
Why candidates could not be priced
243nfl total unproven vs market
37wnba total unproven vs market
13nfl ml unproven vs market
9wnba total rung unquoted
6projection disagreement too large
6projection uninformative vs market
3away starter insufficient sample
3no polymarket market
3spread venue unverified
2wnba total ladder incoherent
1ncaaf ml unproven vs market
1team thinly rated
Sat, Oct 3584 candidates73 games · 54 NCAAF · 12 NFL · 4 MLB · 3 WNBA0 published
Why candidates were declined
12marginal edge — watching
8event starts within one hour
1ev -22% below threshold
1ev -15% below threshold
1ev 0.6% below threshold
1ev 3.2% below threshold
1ev 0.4% below threshold
1ev -12% below threshold
1ev 3% below threshold
1ev 3.5% below threshold
1ev -2.3% below threshold
1ev 3.8% below threshold
1ev 2.8% below threshold
1ev 2.6% below threshold
1ev 1.1% below threshold
1ev 0.7% below threshold
1ev 1.2% below threshold
Why candidates could not be priced
226nfl total unproven vs market
148spread venue unverified
59ncaaf ml unproven vs market
38team thinly rated
27wnba total unproven vs market
12nfl ml unproven vs market
4projection disagreement too large
4ml price out of band
3projection uninformative vs market
3no polymarket market
Fri, Oct 2588 candidates73 games · 57 NCAAF · 11 NFL · 3 MLB · 2 WNBA1 published
Why candidates were declined
39marginal edge — watching
3expected value or confidence too low
2edge above published band
2ev 1.7% below threshold
1ev -2.3% below threshold
1ev 0.4% below threshold
1ev 2.2% below threshold
1ev -0.3% below threshold
1ev 1.6% below threshold
1ev 2% below threshold
1ev -3.4% below threshold
1ev 4% below threshold
1ev 0.1% below threshold
1ev -31.8% below threshold
1ev -12% below threshold
1ev -16.3% below threshold
1ev 0.5% below threshold
Why candidates could not be priced
206nfl total unproven vs market
156spread venue unverified
66ncaaf ml unproven vs market
55team thinly rated
23wnba total unproven vs market
11nfl ml unproven vs market
4ml price out of band
4wnba total ladder incoherent
3projection disagreement too large
3no polymarket market
2projection uninformative vs market
Thu, Oct 1401 candidates65 games · 59 NCAAF · 4 WNBA · 1 MLB · 1 NFL0 published
Why candidates were declined
13marginal edge — watching
1ev -22% below threshold
1ev -3.4% below threshold
1ev 0.6% below threshold
1ev -6.3% below threshold
1ev -0.3% below threshold
Why candidates could not be priced
139spread venue unverified
69ncaaf ml unproven vs market
58wnba total unproven vs market
49no polymarket market
15team thinly rated
14nfl total unproven vs market
4ml price out of band
3home starter insufficient sample
2wnba total rung unquoted
1projection disagreement too large
1projection uninformative vs market
1nfl ml unproven vs market
Wed, Sep 3093 candidates15 games · 5 NCAAF · 5 WNBA · 4 MLB · 1 NFL1 published
Why candidates were declined
5event starts within one hour
1edge above published band
1expected value or confidence too low
Why candidates could not be priced
45wnba total unproven vs market
14nfl total unproven vs market
6spread venue unverified
5projection disagreement too large
5projection uninformative vs market
5ncaaf ml unproven vs market
5team thinly rated
3no polymarket market
1nfl ml unproven vs market
Tue, Sep 2958 candidates11 games · 5 MLB · 4 WNBA · 2 NCAAF0 published
Why candidates were declined
6event starts within one hour
2expected value or confidence too low
1edge above published band
Why candidates could not be priced
36wnba total unproven vs market
5projection disagreement too large
5projection uninformative vs market
3no polymarket market
2spread venue unverified
2ncaaf ml unproven vs market
2team thinly rated
Candidates are archived as priced, insert-only. A day’s entry is the last field priced that day. Nothing here is edited after the fact, including by ATLAS.