Why ATLAS Believes
The model signals, probabilities, and expected value behind today's picks. Select a sport tab to see ATLAS's analysis — MLB runs against Polymarket prices; NCAAF and NFL run against DraftKings lines via ESPN.
Markets clearing the bar at this moment, one per game. This is not the count of calls published today — a market can stop qualifying after ATLAS has already called it. Published calls are on the Record.
Polymarket sports markets evaluated in this session.
MLB candidates matched to game identities and scored.
52% accuracy on 58 graded picks.
Clearing the bar right now
These are not published calls. They are markets clearing every ATLAS gate at this moment — EV ≥ 5%, confidence ≥ 70%, liquidity ≥ $2,500, and first pitch 1–72 h out. A market can clear the bar here and never be published, and one already published can stop clearing it. What ATLAS actually published, and how it settled, is on the Record. The model probability bar shows where ATLAS sees the true price against where the market is priced.
No participant evidence attached yet.
No participant evidence attached yet.
No participant evidence attached yet.
WATCH Markets
Positive expected value but below the full RECOMMENDED thresholds. ATLAS monitors these as prices move.
EDGE_ABOVE_PUBLISHED_BAND
EDGE_ABOVE_PUBLISHED_BAND
EDGE_ABOVE_PUBLISHED_BAND
EDGE_ABOVE_PUBLISHED_BAND
Candidates That Did Not Clear
ATLAS reviewed these markets and rejected them due to insufficient edge, low liquidity, timing, or a failed identity match. Transparency is part of the evidence layer.
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks·
PROJECTION_DISAGREEMENT_TOO_LARGE · PROJECTION_UNINFORMATIVE_VS_MARKET
Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers·
HOME_STARTER_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE:Jackson Jobe:14IP · PROJECTION_DISAGREEMENT_TOO_LARGE · PROJECTION_UNINFORMATIVE_VS_MARKET
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees·
AWAY_STARTER_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE:Ethan Pecko:3IP · PROJECTION_DISAGREEMENT_TOO_LARGE · PROJECTION_UNINFORMATIVE_VS_MARKET
What Resolved Calls Taught ATLAS
Only official calls published before the outcome and later resolved appear here. Research markets never enter the learning record automatically.
Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners
Observation is immutable. Model weights do not change silently after this result.
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
Observation is immutable. Model weights do not change silently after this result.
Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies
Observation is immutable. Model weights do not change silently after this result.
Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks
Observation is immutable. Model weights do not change silently after this result.
Athletics at Houston Astros
Observation is immutable. Model weights do not change silently after this result.
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Observation is immutable. Model weights do not change silently after this result.
San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox
Observation is immutable. Model weights do not change silently after this result.
Athletics at Houston Astros
Observation is immutable. Model weights do not change silently after this result.
The official sample has reached the minimum size for a separate review of ATLAS performance.
Every RECOMMENDED MLB pick must clear:
- EV ≥ 5% (model probability − market price)
- Model confidence ≥ 70%
- Polymarket liquidity ≥ $2,500
- Polymarket volume ≥ $500
- Game tips off 1–72 hours from now
- Game identity confirmed against official schedule
This page explains current evidence but cannot create or alter an official call. Official calls count only when published before the outcome and remain permanently visible in Record.