A service with a real edge and a service that is a coin flip look identical to a customer for years — the variance is far larger than the edge. So do not take our word for any of this. Every call below states a price and a time, and Polymarket’s price history is public. If a price we quoted was never available when we quoted it, you can prove that yourself in two clicks.
Calls on this page
200
Timed before the event
196/200
Price matched at that time
196/196
Range-checked only
0
The last two columns are not the same claim. Price matched at that time means we pulled the book at the minute we say we froze the call and the number agreed. Range-checked only covers 0 older calls that were migrated without a freeze time — all we can show is that the price existed in that market before first pitch, which is corroboration, not proof. They are counted apart so the weaker evidence cannot hide inside the stronger.
This page checks 200 published calls, while the record headlines 196. The difference is 4 of the earliest calls, which carry no recorded identity — no game id, no event time — and are held out of the record and shown in their own section there. They are checked here anyway: their prices verify like any other, and leaving them off the one page built for sceptics would be the wrong instinct entirely. See them on the record →
Our price will sit slightly above theirs. Here is why.
ATLAS records the executable ask— what you would actually have paid. Polymarket’s history endpoint reports the midpoint, halfway between the best bid and the best ask. Verified against a live book on 12 August: bid 0.50, ask 0.53, midpoint 0.515, and the history tick read exactly 0.515.
So our number is higher by about half the spread, every time. That difference is not in our favour: quoting the midpoint would make every entry look better than it was. A row is flagged if our price sits below the midpoint, or more than half a spread above it.
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays: OVER 6.5
frozen 2026-10-13T04:30:08.695Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Oct 13, 00:30 ET we said OVER at 55.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 54.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.5h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
55.0¢
Book midpoint then
54.5¢
Tick distance
14s
Ask 0.55 against a midpoint of 0.545, 14s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Oct 11, 19:30 ET we said OVER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 24.5h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.5¢
Tick distance
15s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.535, 15s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox: OVER 7.5
frozen 2026-10-08T04:30:18.027Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Oct 8, 00:30 ET we said OVER at 49.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 48.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.5h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
49.0¢
Book midpoint then
48.0¢
Tick distance
5s
Ask 0.49 against a midpoint of 0.48, 5s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Oct 7, 13:30 ET we said OVER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 4.5h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.5¢
Tick distance
17s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.515, 17s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Oct 6, 12:30 ET we said OVER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 9.0h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
18s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 18s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Oct 6, 01:30 ET we said OVER at 48.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 42.5h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.0¢
Tick distance
25s
Ask 0.48 against a midpoint of 0.47, 25s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Oct 2, 12:30 ET we said OVER at 57.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 56.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 30.0h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
57.0¢
Book midpoint then
56.0¢
Tick distance
5s
Ask 0.57 against a midpoint of 0.56, 5s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 30, 00:30 ET we said OVER at 55.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 54.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.5h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
55.0¢
Book midpoint then
54.5¢
Tick distance
2s
Ask 0.55 against a midpoint of 0.545, 2s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 27, 10:30 ET we said UNDER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 4.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.5¢
Tick distance
8s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.515, 8s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 27, 06:30 ET we said OVER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.5¢. Not yet settled.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 6.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.5¢
Tick distance
24s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.515, 24s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-09-27T09:30:16.586Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 27, 05:30 ET we said UNDER at 55.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 9.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
55.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.5¢
Tick distance
2s
Ask 0.55 against a midpoint of 0.535, 2s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-09-27T09:30:16.586Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 27, 05:30 ET we said UNDER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 9.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.0¢
Tick distance
2s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.51, 2s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 26, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 49.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 18.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
49.5¢
Tick distance
30s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.495, 30s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants: UNDER 7.5
frozen 2026-09-26T13:31:04.509Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 26, 09:31 ET we said UNDER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 6.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.5¢
Tick distance
12s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.515, 12s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 26, 07:31 ET we said UNDER at 55.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 8.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
55.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.5¢
Tick distance
5s
Ask 0.55 against a midpoint of 0.535, 5s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-09-26T07:31:01.448Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 26, 03:31 ET we said UNDER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 15.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.5¢
Tick distance
27s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.515, 27s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 25, 23:31 ET we said OVER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 15.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.5¢
Tick distance
26s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.535, 26s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 25, 23:31 ET we said UNDER at 58.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 57.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
58.0¢
Book midpoint then
57.0¢
Tick distance
27s
Ask 0.58 against a midpoint of 0.57, 27s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres: OVER 7.5
frozen 2026-09-25T23:31:07.740Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 25, 19:31 ET we said OVER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 2.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.5¢
Tick distance
7s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.515, 7s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 25, 18:30 ET we said OVER at 49.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 21.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
49.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.5¢
Tick distance
21s
Ask 0.49 against a midpoint of 0.475, 21s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals: OVER 7.5
frozen 2026-09-25T04:30:41.978Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 25, 00:30 ET we said OVER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
24s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 24s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 24, 21:30 ET we said OVER at 56.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 55.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
56.0¢
Book midpoint then
55.5¢
Tick distance
25s
Ask 0.56 against a midpoint of 0.555, 25s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 24, 21:30 ET we said OVER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 21.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
29s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.525, 29s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 24, 17:30 ET we said OVER at 57.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 55.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 28.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
57.0¢
Book midpoint then
55.0¢
Tick distance
13s
Ask 0.57 against a midpoint of 0.55, 13s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 24, 17:30 ET we said OVER at 56.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 56.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
56.0¢
Book midpoint then
56.5¢
Tick distance
15s
Ask 0.56 against a midpoint of 0.565, 15s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals: UNDER 9.5
frozen 2026-09-24T06:30:15.579Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 24, 02:30 ET we said UNDER at 58.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 57.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 11.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
58.0¢
Book midpoint then
57.0¢
Tick distance
1s
Ask 0.58 against a midpoint of 0.57, 1s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 24, 00:30 ET we said UNDER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 14.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.0¢
Tick distance
2s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.51, 2s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies: OVER 9.5
frozen 2026-09-24T00:30:20.551Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 23, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 55.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 54.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 18.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
55.0¢
Book midpoint then
54.5¢
Tick distance
6s
Ask 0.55 against a midpoint of 0.545, 6s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 23, 04:30 ET we said UNDER at 56.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 54.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
56.0¢
Book midpoint then
54.5¢
Tick distance
1s
Ask 0.56 against a midpoint of 0.545, 1s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-09-23T03:30:08.930Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 22, 23:30 ET we said UNDER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
5s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.525, 5s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 22, 23:30 ET we said OVER at 55.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 54.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 13.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
55.0¢
Book midpoint then
54.5¢
Tick distance
6s
Ask 0.55 against a midpoint of 0.545, 6s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-09-23T01:30:11.453Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 22, 21:30 ET we said UNDER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 48.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
48.5¢
Tick distance
2s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.485, 2s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 22, 21:30 ET we said OVER at 49.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 21.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
49.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.5¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.49 against a midpoint of 0.475, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 22, 05:30 ET we said OVER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 13.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.5¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.515, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 21, 22:30 ET we said OVER at 56.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 55.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 21.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
56.0¢
Book midpoint then
55.0¢
Tick distance
2s
Ask 0.56 against a midpoint of 0.55, 2s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 21, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 57.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 55.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
57.0¢
Book midpoint then
55.5¢
Tick distance
0s
Ask 0.57 against a midpoint of 0.555, 0s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 21, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 25.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.0¢
Tick distance
1s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.5, 1s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies: UNDER 10.5
frozen 2026-09-22T00:30:13.431Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 21, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 47.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 46.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 24.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
47.0¢
Book midpoint then
46.5¢
Tick distance
0s
Ask 0.47 against a midpoint of 0.465, 0s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 20, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 49.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
49.5¢
Tick distance
17s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.495, 17s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 20, 05:30 ET we said UNDER at 49.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 9.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
49.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.5¢
Tick distance
16s
Ask 0.49 against a midpoint of 0.475, 16s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 19, 23:30 ET we said UNDER at 55.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 54.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 16.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
55.0¢
Book midpoint then
54.5¢
Tick distance
23s
Ask 0.55 against a midpoint of 0.545, 23s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 19, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
19s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.525, 19s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 19, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.8h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.0¢
Tick distance
17s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.52, 17s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 19, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 48.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.5¢
Tick distance
16s
Ask 0.48 against a midpoint of 0.475, 16s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 19, 01:31 ET we said OVER at 48.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 14.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.0¢
Tick distance
19s
Ask 0.48 against a midpoint of 0.47, 19s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 19, 01:31 ET we said UNDER at 55.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 54.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
55.0¢
Book midpoint then
54.5¢
Tick distance
18s
Ask 0.55 against a midpoint of 0.545, 18s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 18, 21:31 ET we said OVER at 57.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 56.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 20.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
57.0¢
Book midpoint then
56.0¢
Tick distance
13s
Ask 0.57 against a midpoint of 0.56, 13s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-09-19T01:31:27.477Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 18, 21:31 ET we said UNDER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 21.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
13s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.525, 13s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 18, 21:31 ET we said UNDER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 16.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
12s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.525, 12s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 18, 04:30 ET we said UNDER at 57.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 56.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 15.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
57.0¢
Book midpoint then
56.5¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.57 against a midpoint of 0.565, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 18, 00:30 ET we said OVER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 49.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 21.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
49.0¢
Tick distance
2s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.49, 2s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-09-18T02:30:12.078Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 17, 22:30 ET we said UNDER at 56.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 55.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 20.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
56.0¢
Book midpoint then
55.5¢
Tick distance
4s
Ask 0.56 against a midpoint of 0.555, 4s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks: OVER 7.5
frozen 2026-09-18T02:30:12.078Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 17, 22:30 ET we said OVER at 56.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 55.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
56.0¢
Book midpoint then
55.0¢
Tick distance
5s
Ask 0.56 against a midpoint of 0.55, 5s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 17, 22:30 ET we said OVER at 56.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 55.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 21.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
56.0¢
Book midpoint then
55.0¢
Tick distance
4s
Ask 0.56 against a midpoint of 0.55, 4s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 17, 01:30 ET we said UNDER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
5s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.525, 5s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 16, 23:30 ET we said OVER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.0¢
Tick distance
6s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.5, 6s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 16, 21:30 ET we said UNDER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.5¢
Tick distance
7s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.515, 7s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 16, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 48.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 18.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.5¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.48 against a midpoint of 0.475, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 16, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 16.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.0¢
Tick distance
1s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.51, 1s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 16, 01:30 ET we said OVER at 57.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 56.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 13.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
57.0¢
Book midpoint then
56.5¢
Tick distance
4s
Ask 0.57 against a midpoint of 0.565, 4s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 15, 22:30 ET we said OVER at 57.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 56.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
57.0¢
Book midpoint then
56.5¢
Tick distance
5s
Ask 0.57 against a midpoint of 0.565, 5s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 15, 21:30 ET we said UNDER at 56.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 55.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 21.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
56.0¢
Book midpoint then
55.5¢
Tick distance
4s
Ask 0.56 against a midpoint of 0.555, 4s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 15, 21:30 ET we said UNDER at 57.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 56.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
57.0¢
Book midpoint then
56.5¢
Tick distance
4s
Ask 0.57 against a midpoint of 0.565, 4s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 15, 21:30 ET we said UNDER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.5¢
Tick distance
5s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.535, 5s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 15, 04:30 ET we said OVER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 15.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
5s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 5s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 15, 03:30 ET we said OVER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 18.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.5¢
Tick distance
6s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.515, 6s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 14, 23:30 ET we said UNDER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 21.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.0¢
Tick distance
21s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.51, 21s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 14, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 56.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 55.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
56.0¢
Book midpoint then
55.0¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.56 against a midpoint of 0.55, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 14, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 48.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 25.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.5¢
Tick distance
2s
Ask 0.48 against a midpoint of 0.475, 2s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 14, 17:30 ET we said OVER at 55.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 54.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 25.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
55.0¢
Book midpoint then
54.0¢
Tick distance
1s
Ask 0.55 against a midpoint of 0.54, 1s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals: OVER 8.5
frozen 2026-09-14T21:30:16.111Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 14, 17:30 ET we said OVER at 48.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 46.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 25.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Book midpoint then
46.5¢
Tick distance
0s
Ask 0.48 against a midpoint of 0.465, 0s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 14, 02:30 ET we said UNDER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.0¢
Tick distance
7s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.51, 7s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 13, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 58.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 57.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
58.0¢
Book midpoint then
57.5¢
Tick distance
7s
Ask 0.58 against a midpoint of 0.575, 7s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 13, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
4s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 4s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 13, 05:30 ET we said UNDER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 10.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
12s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 12s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-09-13T06:30:27.843Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 13, 02:30 ET we said UNDER at 47.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 46.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 11.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
47.0¢
Book midpoint then
46.0¢
Tick distance
12s
Ask 0.47 against a midpoint of 0.46, 12s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 12, 21:30 ET we said OVER at 57.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 56.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 16.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
57.0¢
Book midpoint then
56.5¢
Tick distance
5s
Ask 0.57 against a midpoint of 0.565, 5s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals: OVER 8.5
frozen 2026-09-13T00:30:26.253Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 12, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 57.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 56.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
57.0¢
Book midpoint then
56.5¢
Tick distance
12s
Ask 0.57 against a midpoint of 0.565, 12s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 12, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 56.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 55.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
56.0¢
Book midpoint then
55.5¢
Tick distance
11s
Ask 0.56 against a midpoint of 0.555, 11s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 12, 19:30 ET we said OVER at 48.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 18.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.0¢
Tick distance
2s
Ask 0.48 against a midpoint of 0.47, 2s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-09-12T20:30:44.117Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 12, 16:30 ET we said UNDER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 2.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.5¢
Tick distance
29s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.515, 29s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 12, 14:31 ET we said OVER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.5¢
Tick distance
8s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.535, 8s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 12, 14:31 ET we said UNDER at 57.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 56.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 3.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
57.0¢
Book midpoint then
56.5¢
Tick distance
8s
Ask 0.57 against a midpoint of 0.565, 8s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals: OVER 7.5
frozen 2026-09-12T18:31:07.390Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 12, 14:31 ET we said OVER at 56.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 55.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
56.0¢
Book midpoint then
55.5¢
Tick distance
8s
Ask 0.56 against a midpoint of 0.555, 8s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 10, 10:30 ET we said OVER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 49.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 8.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
49.5¢
Tick distance
5s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.495, 5s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 9, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 15.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.0¢
Tick distance
0s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.52, 0s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 9, 13:30 ET we said UNDER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 5.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
16s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.525, 16s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 9, 11:30 ET we said UNDER at 47.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 46.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 7.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
47.0¢
Book midpoint then
46.5¢
Tick distance
4s
Ask 0.47 against a midpoint of 0.465, 4s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-09-09T00:30:17.008Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 8, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 48.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
48.5¢
Tick distance
0s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.485, 0s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 8, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 43.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 42.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
43.0¢
Book midpoint then
42.0¢
Tick distance
4s
Ask 0.43 against a midpoint of 0.42, 4s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 8, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 45.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 45.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
45.0¢
Book midpoint then
45.0¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.45 against a midpoint of 0.45, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-09-08T00:30:09.423Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 7, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 49.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 48.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
49.0¢
Book midpoint then
48.0¢
Tick distance
2s
Ask 0.49 against a midpoint of 0.48, 2s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 7, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 43.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 42.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
43.0¢
Book midpoint then
42.5¢
Tick distance
0s
Ask 0.43 against a midpoint of 0.425, 0s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 7, 16:30 ET we said OVER at 47.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 45.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 26.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
47.0¢
Book midpoint then
45.0¢
Tick distance
9s
Ask 0.47 against a midpoint of 0.45, 9s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 7, 16:30 ET we said OVER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 26.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.0¢
Tick distance
8s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.52, 8s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-09-07T00:30:14.316Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 6, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.525, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 6, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 47.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 46.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 16.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
47.0¢
Book midpoint then
46.0¢
Tick distance
0s
Ask 0.47 against a midpoint of 0.46, 0s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 6, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 40.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 39.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
40.0¢
Book midpoint then
39.0¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.4 against a midpoint of 0.39, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 6, 10:30 ET we said OVER at 41.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 40.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
41.0¢
Book midpoint then
40.5¢
Tick distance
8s
Ask 0.41 against a midpoint of 0.405, 8s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals: UNDER 9.5
frozen 2026-09-06T04:30:08.906Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 6, 00:30 ET we said UNDER at 49.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 48.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 13.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
49.0¢
Book midpoint then
48.0¢
Tick distance
18s
Ask 0.49 against a midpoint of 0.48, 18s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 5, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.525, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 5, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 42.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 41.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
42.0¢
Book midpoint then
41.5¢
Tick distance
1s
Ask 0.42 against a midpoint of 0.415, 1s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 5, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 47.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 46.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 16.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
47.0¢
Book midpoint then
46.0¢
Tick distance
1s
Ask 0.47 against a midpoint of 0.46, 1s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates: OVER 7.5
frozen 2026-09-05T09:30:54.893Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 5, 05:30 ET we said OVER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 13.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
22s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 22s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 5, 02:30 ET we said OVER at 46.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 44.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
46.0¢
Book midpoint then
44.5¢
Tick distance
21s
Ask 0.46 against a midpoint of 0.445, 21s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 4, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 48.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 21.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.5¢
Tick distance
16s
Ask 0.48 against a midpoint of 0.475, 16s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers: OVER 7.5
frozen 2026-09-05T00:30:53.036Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 4, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 24.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.0¢
Tick distance
17s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.53, 17s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 4, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 43.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 42.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
43.0¢
Book midpoint then
42.5¢
Tick distance
16s
Ask 0.43 against a midpoint of 0.425, 16s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 4, 17:30 ET we said OVER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 2.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.5¢
Tick distance
24s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.535, 24s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 3, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 46.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 44.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
46.0¢
Book midpoint then
44.5¢
Tick distance
28s
Ask 0.46 against a midpoint of 0.445, 28s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals: UNDER 9.5
frozen 2026-09-04T00:30:42.941Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Sep 3, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 48.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.5¢
Tick distance
27s
Ask 0.48 against a midpoint of 0.475, 27s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 3, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 41.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 40.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
41.0¢
Book midpoint then
40.5¢
Tick distance
29s
Ask 0.41 against a midpoint of 0.405, 29s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 3, 14:30 ET we said UNDER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 4.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
22s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 22s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 3, 14:30 ET we said UNDER at 55.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 54.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 5.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
55.0¢
Book midpoint then
54.5¢
Tick distance
20s
Ask 0.55 against a midpoint of 0.545, 20s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Sep 3, 14:30 ET we said OVER at 39.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 38.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 4.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
39.0¢
Book midpoint then
38.5¢
Tick distance
19s
Ask 0.39 against a midpoint of 0.385, 19s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates: OVER 7.5
frozen 2026-09-01T02:30:11.040Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 31, 22:30 ET we said OVER at 49.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 48.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 20.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
49.0¢
Book midpoint then
48.0¢
Tick distance
2s
Ask 0.49 against a midpoint of 0.48, 2s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks: OVER 8.5
frozen 2026-09-01T00:30:11.851Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 31, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 44.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 43.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 25.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
44.0¢
Book midpoint then
43.0¢
Tick distance
0s
Ask 0.44 against a midpoint of 0.43, 0s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 31, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 44.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 43.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 25.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
44.0¢
Book midpoint then
43.0¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.44 against a midpoint of 0.43, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 31, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 39.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 38.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
39.0¢
Book midpoint then
38.5¢
Tick distance
2s
Ask 0.39 against a midpoint of 0.385, 2s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks: OVER 8.5
frozen 2026-08-31T18:30:13.474Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 31, 14:30 ET we said OVER at 49.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 48.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 7.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
49.0¢
Book midpoint then
48.5¢
Tick distance
1s
Ask 0.49 against a midpoint of 0.485, 1s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 31, 13:30 ET we said OVER at 46.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 45.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 8.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
46.0¢
Book midpoint then
45.5¢
Tick distance
4s
Ask 0.46 against a midpoint of 0.455, 4s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 30, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 55.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 54.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
55.0¢
Book midpoint then
54.0¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.55 against a midpoint of 0.54, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 30, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 49.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
49.5¢
Tick distance
1s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.495, 1s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 30, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.0¢
Tick distance
2s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.5, 2s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels: OVER 8.5
frozen 2026-08-30T18:30:15.385Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 30, 14:30 ET we said OVER at 43.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 42.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
43.0¢
Book midpoint then
42.5¢
Tick distance
4s
Ask 0.43 against a midpoint of 0.425, 4s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 30, 00:30 ET we said UNDER at 49.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 48.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 13.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
49.0¢
Book midpoint then
48.0¢
Tick distance
1s
Ask 0.49 against a midpoint of 0.48, 1s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 29, 22:30 ET we said UNDER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 15.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.5¢
Tick distance
1s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.535, 1s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 29, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 57.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 56.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 15.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
57.0¢
Book midpoint then
56.5¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.57 against a midpoint of 0.565, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 29, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.5¢
Tick distance
0s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.535, 0s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 29, 16:30 ET we said UNDER at 55.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 54.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 21.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
55.0¢
Book midpoint then
54.0¢
Tick distance
2s
Ask 0.55 against a midpoint of 0.54, 2s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 29, 12:30 ET we said UNDER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.8h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
1s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.525, 1s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 28, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 56.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 55.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
56.0¢
Book midpoint then
55.0¢
Tick distance
2s
Ask 0.56 against a midpoint of 0.55, 2s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 28, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 49.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
49.5¢
Tick distance
0s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.495, 0s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 28, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 42.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 41.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
42.0¢
Book midpoint then
41.5¢
Tick distance
0s
Ask 0.42 against a midpoint of 0.415, 0s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 28, 11:31 ET we said UNDER at 58.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 57.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 7.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
58.0¢
Book midpoint then
57.5¢
Tick distance
21s
Ask 0.58 against a midpoint of 0.575, 21s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 27, 23:31 ET we said UNDER at 57.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 56.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
57.0¢
Book midpoint then
56.0¢
Tick distance
6s
Ask 0.57 against a midpoint of 0.56, 6s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 27, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 57.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 55.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
57.0¢
Book midpoint then
55.5¢
Tick distance
6s
Ask 0.57 against a midpoint of 0.555, 6s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 27, 19:31 ET we said UNDER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.0¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.51, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-08-27T16:30:25.974Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 27, 12:30 ET we said UNDER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 6.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
7s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.525, 7s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels: OVER 8.5
frozen 2026-08-26T14:31:38.061Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 26, 10:31 ET we said OVER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 5.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
25s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 25s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-08-26T05:31:37.005Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 26, 01:31 ET we said UNDER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 48.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
48.5¢
Tick distance
28s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.485, 28s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 26, 00:31 ET we said OVER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
26s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.525, 26s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 25, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
17s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 17s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-08-26T00:30:31.134Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 25, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 56.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 55.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
56.0¢
Book midpoint then
55.5¢
Tick distance
18s
Ask 0.56 against a midpoint of 0.555, 18s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 25, 16:31 ET we said OVER at 56.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 20.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
56.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.0¢
Tick distance
9s
Ask 0.56 against a midpoint of 0.53, 9s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants: UNDER 8.5
frozen 2026-08-25T16:31:28.099Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 25, 12:31 ET we said UNDER at 56.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 55.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 9.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
56.0¢
Book midpoint then
55.0¢
Tick distance
20s
Ask 0.56 against a midpoint of 0.55, 20s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 24, 21:30 ET we said OVER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.0¢
Tick distance
14s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.52, 14s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 24, 19:31 ET we said OVER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 48.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
48.5¢
Tick distance
11s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.485, 11s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 24, 19:31 ET we said OVER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.0¢
Tick distance
13s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.52, 13s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 24, 19:31 ET we said OVER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
12s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 12s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 24, 01:31 ET we said OVER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 49.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 20.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
49.0¢
Tick distance
4s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.49, 4s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels: OVER 7.5
frozen 2026-08-24T00:31:24.339Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 23, 20:31 ET we said OVER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 25.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.5¢
Tick distance
13s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.535, 13s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 22, 22:31 ET we said OVER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 49.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
49.5¢
Tick distance
34s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.495, 34s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies: UNDER 10.5
frozen 2026-08-23T00:30:37.217Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 22, 20:30 ET we said UNDER at 45.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 44.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 18.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
45.0¢
Book midpoint then
44.5¢
Tick distance
26s
Ask 0.45 against a midpoint of 0.445, 26s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 22, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 41.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 40.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
41.0¢
Book midpoint then
40.0¢
Tick distance
24s
Ask 0.41 against a midpoint of 0.4, 24s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 22, 03:30 ET we said OVER at 46.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 44.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 16.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
46.0¢
Book midpoint then
44.5¢
Tick distance
28s
Ask 0.46 against a midpoint of 0.445, 28s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 21, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 43.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 42.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
43.0¢
Book midpoint then
42.0¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.43 against a midpoint of 0.42, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 21, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 47.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 46.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 22.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
47.0¢
Book midpoint then
46.0¢
Tick distance
1s
Ask 0.47 against a midpoint of 0.46, 1s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 21, 01:31 ET we said OVER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 17.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.0¢
Tick distance
8s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.51, 8s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 20, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 48.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 23.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.5¢
Tick distance
24s
Ask 0.48 against a midpoint of 0.475, 24s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 20, 20:30 ET we said OVER at 37.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 36.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
37.0¢
Book midpoint then
36.5¢
Tick distance
25s
Ask 0.37 against a midpoint of 0.365, 25s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians: OVER 7.5
frozen 2026-08-20T15:30:57.687Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 20, 11:30 ET we said OVER at 44.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 43.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
44.0¢
Book midpoint then
43.5¢
Tick distance
32s
Ask 0.44 against a midpoint of 0.435, 32s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 20, 11:30 ET we said OVER at 46.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 45.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
46.0¢
Book midpoint then
45.5¢
Tick distance
31s
Ask 0.46 against a midpoint of 0.455, 31s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 20, 09:30 ET we said OVER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 10.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
7s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 7s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 18, 23:31 ET we said UNDER at 44.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 42.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 19.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
44.0¢
Book midpoint then
42.5¢
Tick distance
14s
Ask 0.44 against a midpoint of 0.425, 14s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 18, 23:31 ET we said OVER at 47.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 45.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 20.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
47.0¢
Book midpoint then
45.5¢
Tick distance
15s
Ask 0.47 against a midpoint of 0.455, 15s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 18, 20:31 ET we said OVER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 21.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
24s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 24s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 18, 10:30 ET we said OVER at 45.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 44.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 8.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
45.0¢
Book midpoint then
44.5¢
Tick distance
24s
Ask 0.45 against a midpoint of 0.445, 24s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 18, 07:30 ET we said OVER at 48.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 11.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.5¢
Tick distance
29s
Ask 0.48 against a midpoint of 0.475, 29s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 17, 12:30 ET we said OVER at 46.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 45.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 6.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
46.0¢
Book midpoint then
45.5¢
Tick distance
15s
Ask 0.46 against a midpoint of 0.455, 15s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 17, 12:30 ET we said UNDER at 42.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 41.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 7.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
42.0¢
Book midpoint then
41.5¢
Tick distance
17s
Ask 0.42 against a midpoint of 0.415, 17s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 16, 10:31 ET we said OVER at 49.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 48.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
49.0¢
Book midpoint then
48.5¢
Tick distance
29s
Ask 0.49 against a midpoint of 0.485, 29s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 16, 00:31 ET we said OVER at 44.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 43.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 18.8h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
44.0¢
Book midpoint then
43.5¢
Tick distance
8s
Ask 0.44 against a midpoint of 0.435, 8s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 15, 04:30 ET we said OVER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 8.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
8s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.525, 8s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 14, 07:30 ET we said OVER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 11.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.5¢
Tick distance
18s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.515, 18s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 14, 07:30 ET we said OVER at 46.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 45.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 11.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
46.0¢
Book midpoint then
45.5¢
Tick distance
21s
Ask 0.46 against a midpoint of 0.455, 21s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 14, 01:30 ET we said OVER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 16.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.5¢
Tick distance
27s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.535, 27s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 13, 02:31 ET we said OVER at 52.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 51.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 13.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
52.0¢
Book midpoint then
51.5¢
Tick distance
4s
Ask 0.52 against a midpoint of 0.515, 4s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 12, 07:30 ET we said UNDER at 42.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 41.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 11.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
42.0¢
Book midpoint then
41.5¢
Tick distance
5s
Ask 0.42 against a midpoint of 0.415, 5s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 12, 05:30 ET we said UNDER at 63.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 62.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 14.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
63.0¢
Book midpoint then
62.5¢
Tick distance
6s
Ask 0.63 against a midpoint of 0.625, 6s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 11, 21:30 ET we said UNDER at 53.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 52.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 18.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
53.0¢
Book midpoint then
52.5¢
Tick distance
13s
Ask 0.53 against a midpoint of 0.525, 13s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers: UNDER 9.5
frozen 2026-08-12T01:30:27.092Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 11, 21:30 ET we said UNDER at 55.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 54.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 24.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
55.0¢
Book midpoint then
54.0¢
Tick distance
13s
Ask 0.55 against a midpoint of 0.54, 13s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 11, 03:30 ET we said OVER at 43.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 42.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 15.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
43.0¢
Book midpoint then
42.5¢
Tick distance
17s
Ask 0.43 against a midpoint of 0.425, 17s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 11, 03:30 ET we said UNDER at 41.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 40.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 16.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
41.0¢
Book midpoint then
40.5¢
Tick distance
18s
Ask 0.41 against a midpoint of 0.405, 18s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 10, 10:06 ET we said UNDER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.0¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 11.6h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.0¢
Tick distance
11s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.53, 11s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 9, 18:12 ET we said UNDER at 45.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 44.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 2.1h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
45.0¢
Book midpoint then
44.5¢
Tick distance
20s
Ask 0.45 against a midpoint of 0.445, 20s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 9, 12:13 ET we said UNDER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 49.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.4h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
49.5¢
Tick distance
19s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.495, 19s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 9, 12:13 ET we said OVER at 45.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 44.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.9h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
45.0¢
Book midpoint then
44.5¢
Tick distance
19s
Ask 0.45 against a midpoint of 0.445, 19s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 9, 12:13 ET we said UNDER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 1.9h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
21s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 21s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 7, 21:22 ET we said UNDER at 54.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 53.0¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 18.8h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
54.0¢
Book midpoint then
53.0¢
Tick distance
23s
Ask 0.54 against a midpoint of 0.53, 23s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 7, 17:42 ET we said UNDER at 60.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 59.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 2.5h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
60.0¢
Book midpoint then
59.5¢
Tick distance
33s
Ask 0.6 against a midpoint of 0.595, 33s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 7, 15:42 ET we said UNDER at 51.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 50.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 6.5h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
51.0¢
Book midpoint then
50.5¢
Tick distance
3s
Ask 0.51 against a midpoint of 0.505, 3s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 7, 11:52 ET we said OVER at 48.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 47.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 7.3h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
48.0¢
Book midpoint then
47.5¢
Tick distance
26s
Ask 0.48 against a midpoint of 0.475, 26s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles: UNDER 10.5
frozen 2026-08-06T13:25:30.591Z
Timed before the eventConsistent
On Aug 6, 09:25 ET we said UNDER at 58.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 57.5¢. We won.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 3.2h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
58.0¢
Book midpoint then
57.5¢
Tick distance
18s
Ask 0.58 against a midpoint of 0.575, 18s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 6, 09:25 ET we said OVER at 70.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 69.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 4.9h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
70.0¢
Book midpoint then
69.5¢
Tick distance
19s
Ask 0.7 against a midpoint of 0.695, 19s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 6, 09:25 ET we said OVER at 50.0¢. The book's midpoint that minute was 49.5¢. We lost.
Grey line: what Polymarket’s book actually did. Green dot: the price we published, at the minute we published it. Every plotted point is a real reading — nothing is smoothed or filled in.
Frozen 4.7h before the event started.
We recorded (ask)
50.0¢
Book midpoint then
49.5¢
Tick distance
19s
Ask 0.5 against a midpoint of 0.495, 19s from the stated time. The gap is half the spread, as expected.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 5, 13:47 ET we said UNDER at 47.0¢. We lost.
Migrated from an earlier system that did not capture a freeze time. The only timestamp on the row was written 8.8 days after the event started, so the record cannot demonstrate when the call was made.
We recorded (ask)
47.0¢
Book midpoint then
—
Tick distance
—
Polymarket returned no price history for this market, so this call cannot be checked against the book.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants: OVER 7.5
published 2026-08-05T17:47:42.388+00:00
No freeze time recordedNot checkable
On Aug 5, 13:47 ET we said OVER at 58.0¢. We won.
Migrated from an earlier system that did not capture a freeze time. The only timestamp on the row was written 11.6 days after the event started, so the record cannot demonstrate when the call was made.
We recorded (ask)
58.0¢
Book midpoint then
—
Tick distance
—
Polymarket returned no price history for this market, so this call cannot be checked against the book.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
On Aug 5, 13:21 ET we said UNDER at 64.0¢. We won.
Migrated from an earlier system that did not capture a freeze time. The only timestamp on the row was written 3.9 days after the event started, so the record cannot demonstrate when the call was made.
We recorded (ask)
64.0¢
Book midpoint then
—
Tick distance
—
Polymarket returned no price history for this market, so this call cannot be checked against the book.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies: UNDER 11.5
published 2026-08-05T17:21:26.79+00:00
No freeze time recordedNot checkable
On Aug 5, 13:21 ET we said UNDER at 49.0¢. We lost.
Migrated from an earlier system that did not capture a freeze time. The only timestamp on the row was written 3.7 days after the event started, so the record cannot demonstrate when the call was made.
We recorded (ask)
49.0¢
Book midpoint then
—
Tick distance
—
Polymarket returned no price history for this market, so this call cannot be checked against the book.
These are Polymarket’s numbers, not ours — we cannot edit them. The midpoint sits between the best bid and best ask, which is why the price we quote is a little higher: we record what you would actually have paid.
That a quoted price was real does not make the call a good one, and nothing here says our model beats the market — that question needs hundreds of settled results and is reported separately on Calibration, including when the answer is unflattering.
Timestamps are ours. A price checked against a public book cannot be invented, but the record is append-only rather than cryptographically sealed: withdrawn calls stay visible marked VOID, and two duplicates published on 12 August were voided that morning and remain on the record. Nothing is deleted; that is the guarantee, and it is a weaker one than a checksum would be.
And nine of the forty calls on the record carry no freeze time at all. They were migrated from an earlier system that never captured one, so the only timestamp on the row was written after the game — in one case eleven days after. We believe they were called before their events, and the group went 5-4 with four losses kept, which is not what a backfilled record looks like. But belief is not evidence, so they are flagged individually above rather than folded quietly into a total.